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Idea: Probabilities over expectations

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Matt Hood
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1.5 min read

I recently did a course by Jack Butcher (the dude behind one of my favourite IG pages).

In a few sentences, he showed a clever way to look at the idea I wrote about in newsletter #8: "You know, you have the right to miss" (talking about process vs outcome):

"Probabilities over expectations.

It's the difference between:

"If I do this, X will happen." (expectation)

And

"If I do this, there's a higher chance X (or something similar to X) will happen." (probability)

Continually falling short of our expectations is a demoralizing process. That's because expectations set a binary outcome – we either accomplish something, or we fail. The truth is less simple. That's where probabilities come in.

Even if we don't take home the prize, progress is almost always made towards it."


This was a real 'aha' moment for me – a helpful way to look at detaching focus from the outcome.